Real Valladolid v Atlético Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Real Valladolid lost to Atlético Madrid 0–5, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Alexander Sørloth for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Kike Pérez for 1+ fouls committed (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ángel Correa | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Julián Alvarez | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alexander Sørloth | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Antoine Griezmann | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Giuliano Simeone | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kike Pérez | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Juanmi Latasa | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Juanmi Latasa | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo De Paul | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iván Sánchez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 7 | ✓ |
| Kike Pérez | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Koke | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Javi Galán | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Reinildo Mandava | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 55% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | No | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Atlético Madrid 4–2 Real Valladolid Apr 2025
- Real Valladolid 2–5 Atlético Madrid Apr 2023
- Atlético Madrid 3–0 Real Valladolid Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Real Valladolid v Atlético Madrid?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Real Valladolid v Atlético Madrid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kike Pérez at 90% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.