Celta Vigo v Athletic Club
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Celta Vigo lost to Athletic Club 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Aleix Febas for 1+ fouls drawn (93%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Gorka Guruzeta for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorka Guruzeta | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aleix Febas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Williot Swedberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ilaix Moriba | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mikel Jauregizar | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Williot Swedberg | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdoulaye Faye | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aleix Febas | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Hugo González | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mikel Jauregizar | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iago Aspas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ilaix Moriba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 48% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Athletic Club 1–1 Celta Vigo May 2026
- Celta Vigo 2–0 Athletic Club Dec 2025
- Celta Vigo 1–2 Athletic Club Jan 2025
- Athletic Club 3–1 Celta Vigo Sep 2024
- Celta Vigo 2–1 Athletic Club May 2024
- Athletic Club 4–3 Celta Vigo Nov 2023
- Athletic Club 2–1 Celta Vigo May 2023
- Celta Vigo 1–0 Athletic Club Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Celta Vigo v Athletic Club?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Celta Vigo v Athletic Club?
The most confident call it got wrong was Gorka Guruzeta at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.