Girona FC v Rayo Vallecano
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Girona FC lost to Rayo Vallecano 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Isi Palazón for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Yangel Herrera for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isi Palazón | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Álvaro García | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yangel Herrera | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jhon Solís | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yangel Herrera | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thomas Lemar | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gerard Gumbau | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yangel Herrera | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Isi Palazón | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joel Roca | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Arnau Martínez | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Unai López | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joel Roca | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 6 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 22% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Girona FC May 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Girona FC Jan 2025
- Girona FC 0–0 Rayo Vallecano Sep 2024
- Girona FC 3–0 Rayo Vallecano Feb 2024
- Rayo Vallecano 1–2 Girona FC Nov 2023
- Rayo Vallecano 2–2 Girona FC Mar 2023
- Girona FC 2–2 Rayo Vallecano Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Girona FC v Rayo Vallecano?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Girona FC v Rayo Vallecano?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yangel Herrera at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.