Rayo Vallecano v Girona FC
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Rayo Vallecano drew with Girona FC 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Sergio Camello for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Jorge de Frutos for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Camello | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jorge de Frutos | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pacha | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pedro Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joel Roca | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Azzedine Ounahi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joel Roca | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Óscar Valentín | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlos Martín | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andrei Rațiu | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Arnau Martínez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Francés | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Thomas Lemar | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 63% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Girona FC 1–3 Rayo Vallecano Aug 2025
- Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Girona FC Jan 2025
- Girona FC 0–0 Rayo Vallecano Sep 2024
- Girona FC 3–0 Rayo Vallecano Feb 2024
- Rayo Vallecano 1–2 Girona FC Nov 2023
- Rayo Vallecano 2–2 Girona FC Mar 2023
- Girona FC 2–2 Rayo Vallecano Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Rayo Vallecano v Girona FC?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Rayo Vallecano v Girona FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jorge de Frutos at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.