Girona FC v Real Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Girona FC drew with Real Madrid 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Kylian Mbappé for 1+ shots total (95%, had 5). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 7 | ✓ |
| Jude Bellingham | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Eduardo Camavinga | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Arda Güler | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hugo Rincón | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jude Bellingham | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Fran García | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Arnau Martínez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Azzedine Ounahi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jude Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 70% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 31% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Madrid 1–1 Girona FC Apr 2026
- Real Madrid 2–0 Girona FC Feb 2025
- Girona FC 0–3 Real Madrid Dec 2024
- Real Madrid 4–0 Girona FC Feb 2024
- Girona FC 0–3 Real Madrid Sep 2023
- Girona FC 4–2 Real Madrid Apr 2023
- Real Madrid 1–1 Girona FC Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Girona FC v Real Madrid?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Girona FC v Real Madrid?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.