La Liga · 25/26

Girona FC v Real Madrid

How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Girona FC1 – 1 Real Madrid 30 Nov 2025

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Kylian Mbappé	shots total	1+	100%	5	✓
Vinícius Júnior	shots total	1+	98%	7	✓
Jude Bellingham	shots total	1+	92%	4	✓
Arda Güler	shots total	1+	91%	2	✓
Vinícius Júnior	fouls drawn	1+	89%	2	✓
Jude Bellingham	fouls drawn	1+	88%	1	✓
Bryan Gil	fouls committed	1+	83%	0	✗
Jude Bellingham	fouls committed	1+	83%	2	✓
Federico Valverde	shots total	1+	80%	2	✓
Trent Alexander-Arnold	shots total	1+	80%	0	✗
Azzedine Ounahi	shots total	1+	80%	2	✓
Vladyslav Vanat	shots total	1+	80%	1	✓
Kylian Mbappé	shots on target	1+	80%	1	✓
Eduardo Camavinga	fouls drawn	1+	79%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	67%	2 goals	✗
Btts	Yes	62%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	31%	3 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Girona FC & Real Madrid player stats→ Girona FC players & stats→ Real Madrid players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works