La Liga · 25/26

Real Madrid v Girona FC

How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Real Madrid1 – 1 Girona FC 10 Apr 2026

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 12 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Kylian Mbappé	shots total	1+	100%	5	✓
Vinícius Júnior	shots total	1+	98%	5	✓
Jude Bellingham	shots total	1+	91%	3	✓
Vinícius Júnior	fouls drawn	1+	89%	4	✓
Brahim Díaz	fouls drawn	1+	89%	4	✓
Jude Bellingham	fouls drawn	1+	88%	0	✗
Eduardo Camavinga	fouls committed	1+	87%	1	✓
Azzedine Ounahi	fouls drawn	1+	86%	1	✓
Arda Güler	shots total	1+	80%	1	✓
Federico Valverde	shots total	1+	80%	2	✓
Azzedine Ounahi	shots total	1+	80%	1	✓
Abel Ruíz	shots total	1+	80%	0	✗
Kylian Mbappé	shots on target	1+	80%	2	✓
Hugo Rincón	fouls drawn	1+	78%	1	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	68%	2 goals	✗
Btts	Yes	57%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	22%	3 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Real Madrid & Girona FC player stats→ Real Madrid players & stats→ Girona FC players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works