Mallorca v Real Sociedad
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Mallorca lost to Real Sociedad 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Vedat Muriqi for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Mikel Oyarzabal for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vedat Muriqi | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Arsen Zakharyan | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jon Aramburu | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Zito Luvumbo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Samú Costa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gonçalo Guedes | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sergio Gómez | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Beñat Turrientes | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Samú Costa | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pablo Maffeo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samú Costa | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jon Aramburu | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Beñat Turrientes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 21% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Mallorca Sep 2025
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Mallorca Apr 2025
- Mallorca 1–0 Real Sociedad Sep 2024
- Mallorca 1–2 Real Sociedad Feb 2024
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Mallorca Oct 2023
- Mallorca 1–1 Real Sociedad Mar 2023
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Mallorca Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Mallorca v Real Sociedad?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Mallorca v Real Sociedad?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mikel Oyarzabal at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.