Osasuna v Real Valladolid
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Osasuna beat Real Valladolid 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Ante Budimir for 1+ shots total (95%, had 8). Its clearest miss: Mamadou Sylla for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 8 | ✓ |
| Iván Sánchez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Sylla | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anuar | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kike Pérez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mario Martín | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jon Moncayola | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lucas Rosa | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kike Pérez | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lucas Torró | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mario Martín | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Sylla | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Selim Amallah | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kike Pérez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 37% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Valladolid 2–3 Osasuna Apr 2025
- Real Valladolid 0–0 Osasuna Feb 2023
- Osasuna 2–0 Real Valladolid Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Osasuna v Real Valladolid?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Osasuna v Real Valladolid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mamadou Sylla at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.