La Liga · 24/25

Real Madrid v Las Palmas

How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Real Madrid4 – 1 Las Palmas 19 Jan 2025

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 10 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Kylian Mbappé	shots total	1+	100%	6	✓
Rodrygo	shots total	1+	91%	3	✓
Jude Bellingham	fouls drawn	1+	89%	3	✓
Dani Ceballos	fouls drawn	1+	88%	3	✓
Brahim Díaz	fouls drawn	1+	88%	2	✓
Fábio Silva	fouls committed	1+	83%	1	✓
Oli McBurnie	fouls committed	1+	83%	0	✗
Alberto Moleiro	shots total	1+	80%	0	✗
Fábio Silva	shots total	1+	80%	3	✓
Sandro Ramírez	shots total	1+	80%	1	✓
Jude Bellingham	shots total	1+	80%	6	✓
Oli McBurnie	shots total	1+	80%	0	✗
Fábio Silva	fouls drawn	1+	78%	0	✗
Kylian Mbappé	shots on target	1+	77%	5	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	63%	5 goals	✓
Match cards	O4.5	44%	2 cards	✗
Btts	Yes	43%	Yes	✓

Dig deeper

Real Madrid & Las Palmas player stats→ Real Madrid players & stats→ Las Palmas players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works