Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Real Sociedad drew with Celta Vigo 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Orri Óskarsson for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Yangel Herrera for 1+ fouls drawn (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orri Óskarsson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Williot Swedberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Andrés Antañón | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jon Aramburu | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Takefusa Kubo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilaix Moriba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yangel Herrera | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jon Aramburu | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 7 | ✓ |
| Ilaix Moriba | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yangel Herrera | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iago Aspas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ferrán Jutglà | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Javier Rueda | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yangel Herrera | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 40% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Sociedad 3–1 Celta Vigo Jan 2026
- Celta Vigo 1–1 Real Sociedad Oct 2025
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Celta Vigo May 2025
- Celta Vigo 2–0 Real Sociedad Dec 2024
- Celta Vigo 0–1 Real Sociedad Jan 2024
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Celta Vigo Aug 2023
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Celta Vigo Feb 2023
- Celta Vigo 1–2 Real Sociedad Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yangel Herrera at 88% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.