Real Valladolid v Athletic Club
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Real Valladolid drew with Athletic Club 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Nico Serrano for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Iván Sánchez for 1+ fouls drawn (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Serrano | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nico Williams | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gorka Guruzeta | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Álvaro Djaló | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Álex Berenguer | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kike Pérez | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Iván Sánchez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marcos André | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Rosa | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Stanko Jurić | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mikel Jauregizar | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Iván Sánchez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Óscar de Marcos | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Beñat Prados | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 49% | 8 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Athletic Club 7–1 Real Valladolid Feb 2025
- Real Valladolid 1–3 Athletic Club Mar 2023
- Athletic Club 3–0 Real Valladolid Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Real Valladolid v Athletic Club?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Real Valladolid v Athletic Club?
The most confident call it got wrong was Iván Sánchez at 88% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.