Valencia v Celta Vigo
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Valencia drew with Celta Vigo 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Aleix Febas for 1+ fouls drawn (93%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Umar Sadiq for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleix Febas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Umar Sadiq | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Javi Galán | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| José Luis Gayà | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Guido Rodríguez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aleix Febas | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Umar Sadiq | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Williot Swedberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Javi Galán | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iago Aspas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pablo Maffeo | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Williot Swedberg | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yoel Lago | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jesús Vázquez | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 47% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Valencia 2–3 Celta Vigo Apr 2026
- Celta Vigo 4–1 Valencia Jan 2026
- Valencia 2–1 Celta Vigo Feb 2025
- Celta Vigo 3–1 Valencia Aug 2024
- Celta Vigo 2–2 Valencia May 2024
- Valencia 0–0 Celta Vigo Nov 2023
- Celta Vigo 1–2 Valencia May 2023
- Valencia 3–0 Celta Vigo Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Valencia v Celta Vigo?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Valencia v Celta Vigo?
The most confident call it got wrong was Umar Sadiq at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.