Valencia v Real Valladolid
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Valencia beat Real Valladolid 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Umar Sadiq for 1+ shots total (94%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Selim Amallah for 1+ fouls committed (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Sadiq | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Juanmi Latasa | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Diego López | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Juanmi Latasa | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Umar Sadiq | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iván Sánchez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| José Luis Gayà | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Enzo Barrenechea | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Iván Sánchez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pepelu | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Selim Amallah | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Juanmi Latasa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcos André | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Florian Grillitsch | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 58% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Valladolid 1–0 Valencia Dec 2024
- Valencia 2–1 Real Valladolid Apr 2023
- Real Valladolid 1–0 Valencia Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Valencia v Real Valladolid?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Valencia v Real Valladolid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Selim Amallah at 86% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.