Villarreal v Cádiz
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Villarreal drew with Cádiz 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Alexander Sørloth for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ilias Akhomach for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Moreno | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alexander Sørloth | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alex Baena | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Chris Ramos | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Guedes | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| José Luis Morales | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ilias Akhomach | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alex Baena | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iván Alejo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Étienne Capoue | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gonçalo Guedes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rubén Sobrino | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gonzalo Escalante | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Robert Navarro | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 76% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | No | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Cádiz 3–1 Villarreal Sep 2023
- Villarreal 2–0 Cádiz May 2023
- Cádiz 0–0 Villarreal Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Villarreal v Cádiz?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Villarreal v Cádiz?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ilias Akhomach at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.