Villarreal v Real Betis
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Villarreal lost to Real Betis 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Antony for 1+ shots total (95%, had 4). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antony | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Cucho Hernández | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Georges Mikautadze | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Santiago Mouriño | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Isco | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Pépé | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gerard Moreno | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nelson Deossa | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Riquelme | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Isco | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dani Ceballos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dani Ceballos | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 32% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Betis 2–0 Villarreal Jan 2026
- Villarreal 2–2 Real Betis Oct 2025
- Real Betis 1–2 Villarreal Apr 2025
- Villarreal 1–2 Real Betis Dec 2024
- Real Betis 2–3 Villarreal Mar 2024
- Villarreal 1–2 Real Betis Aug 2023
- Villarreal 1–1 Real Betis Mar 2023
- Real Betis 1–0 Villarreal Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Villarreal v Real Betis?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Villarreal v Real Betis?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.