Auxerre v Ajaccio
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Auxerre beat Ajaccio 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Bevic Moussiti Oko for 1+ shots total (92%, had 1). Its clearest miss: M'Baye Niang for 1+ shots total (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bevic Moussiti Oko | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cyrille Bayala | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nuno Da Costa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| M'Baye Niang | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mounaim El Idrissy | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| M'Baye Niang | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nuno Da Costa | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vincent Marchetti | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hamza Sakhi | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Youcef Belaïli | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Youssouf Koné | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lassine Sinayoko | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Youcef Belaïli | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bevic Moussiti Oko | shots on target | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 41% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 36% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Ajaccio 0–3 Auxerre Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Auxerre v Ajaccio?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Auxerre v Ajaccio?
The most confident call it got wrong was M'Baye Niang at 84% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.