Auxerre v Saint-Étienne
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Auxerre drew with Saint-Étienne 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Paul Joly for 1+ tackles (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Theo Bair for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Joly | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Theo Bair | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Augustine Boakye | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hamed Junior Traorè | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elisha Owusu | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Léo Pétrot | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lamine Fomba | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dennis Appiah | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gideon Mensah | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Han-Noah Massengo | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ki-Jana Hoever | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mickaël Nadé | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mathis Amougou | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gaëtan Perrin | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Saint-Étienne 3–1 Auxerre Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Auxerre v Saint-Étienne?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Auxerre v Saint-Étienne?
The most confident call it got wrong was Theo Bair at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.