Clermont Foot v Toulouse
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Clermont Foot lost to Toulouse 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Thijs Dallinga for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Habib Keita for 1+ fouls drawn (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thijs Dallinga | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Frank Magri | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Frank Magri | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vincent Sierro | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Suazo | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yohann Magnin | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yann Gboho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Habib Keita | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Muhammed-Cham Saračević | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Muhammed-Cham Saračević | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yann Gboho | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 47% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Toulouse 2–2 Clermont Foot Sep 2023
- Toulouse 0–1 Clermont Foot Mar 2023
- Clermont Foot 2–0 Toulouse Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Clermont Foot v Toulouse?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Clermont Foot v Toulouse?
The most confident call it got wrong was Habib Keita at 88% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.