Le Mans v Lorient
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Le Mans beat Lorient 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Ibrahima Baldé for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Dame Gueye for 1+ shots total (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamadou Koné | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ibrahima Baldé | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Souleymane Faye | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Louis Mafouta | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gabin Bernardeau | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jean Victor Makengo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dame Gueye | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rayan Bamba | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Souleymane Faye | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arsène Kouassi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gabin Bernardeau | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jean Victor Makengo | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Habibou Diallo | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Djibril Sidibé | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Le Mans v Lorient?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Le Mans v Lorient?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dame Gueye at 90% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.