Le Mans v Stade Brestois
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Le Mans drew with Stade Brestois 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Bradley Locko for 1+ tackles (95%, had 2). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Locko | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kamory Doumbia | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Ajorque | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pathé Mboup | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 6 | ✓ |
| Lucas Tousart | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pathé Mboup | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kamory Doumbia | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Ajorque | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 7 | ✓ |
| Joseph Nonge | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joris Chotard | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lucas Buades | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Romain Del Castillo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pathé Mboup | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Ajorque | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls committed Shots total Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Le Mans v Stade Brestois?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Le Mans v Stade Brestois?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.