Lille v Metz
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lille beat Metz 6–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Matías Fernández-Pardo for 1+ shots total (95%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Alpha Touré for 1+ tackles (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamza Igamane | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Matías Fernández-Pardo | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Benjamin André | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Osame Sahraoui | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Koffi Kouao | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Stambouli | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cheick Tidiane Sabaly | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jessy Deminguet | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alpha Touré | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giorgi Abuashvili | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Osame Sahraoui | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Habibou Diallo | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 7 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 42% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Metz 0–0 Lille Feb 2026
- Metz 1–2 Lille Apr 2024
- Lille 2–0 Metz Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lille v Metz?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lille v Metz?
The most confident call it got wrong was Alpha Touré at 88% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.