Lille v Stade de Reims
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lille beat Stade de Reims 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Benjamin André for 1+ tackles (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: John Patrick for 1+ tackles (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayyoub Bouaddi | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benjamin André | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| John Patrick | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rémy Cabella | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jonathan David | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amadou Koné | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amadou Koné | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rémy Cabella | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jordan Siebatcheu | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Valentin Atangana Edoa | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| John Patrick | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Valentin Atangana Edoa | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Thomas Meunier | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ange Tia | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 41% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Stade de Reims 0–2 Lille Aug 2024
- Stade de Reims 0–1 Lille Mar 2024
- Lille 1–2 Stade de Reims Sep 2023
- Stade de Reims 1–0 Lille May 2023
- Lille 1–1 Stade de Reims Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lille v Stade de Reims?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lille v Stade de Reims?
The most confident call it got wrong was John Patrick at 95% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.