Lorient v Clermont Foot
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lorient beat Clermont Foot 5–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Yohann Magnin for 1+ fouls committed (82%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ahmadou Bamba Dieng for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yohann Magnin | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| İlhan Fakili | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Bamba | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Badredine Bouanani | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Panos Katseris | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elbasan Rashani | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Imrân Louza | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Habib Keita | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Bamba | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Badredine Bouanani | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elbasan Rashani | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 33% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Clermont Foot 1–0 Lorient Nov 2023
- Clermont Foot 2–0 Lorient May 2023
- Lorient 2–1 Clermont Foot Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lorient v Clermont Foot?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lorient v Clermont Foot?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ahmadou Bamba Dieng at 84% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.