Lorient v Toulouse
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lorient drew with Toulouse 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Cristian Cásseres Jr. for 1+ tackles (95%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Santiago Hidalgo for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 6 | ✓ |
| Santiago Hidalgo | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Casper Tengstedt | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ibrahima Baldé | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilyas Azizi | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jacen Russell Rowe | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sion Oppong | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Santiago Hidalgo | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gabin Bernardeau | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thomas Jørgensen | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arthur Avom Ebong | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jean Victor Makengo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Koné | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isak Steiner Jensen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 31% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Toulouse 1–0 Lorient Mar 2026
- Lorient 1–1 Toulouse Nov 2025
- Lorient 1–2 Toulouse Apr 2024
- Toulouse 1–1 Lorient Dec 2023
- Lorient 0–1 Toulouse Apr 2023
- Toulouse 2–2 Lorient Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lorient v Toulouse?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lorient v Toulouse?
The most confident call it got wrong was Santiago Hidalgo at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.