Metz v Nice
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Metz beat Nice 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Kevin Carlos Omoruyi for 1+ shots total (80%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Mohamed Ali Cho for 1+ fouls drawn (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Carlos Omoruyi | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sofiane Diop | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sofiane Diop | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Ali Cho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Habibou Diallo | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alpha Touré | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kevin Carlos Omoruyi | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ali Abdi | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Ali Cho | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kevin Carlos Omoruyi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hicham Boudaoui | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cheick Tidiane Sabaly | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Charles Vanhoutte | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 3 | ✓ |
| Antoine Mendy | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 62% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Nice 0–0 Metz May 2026
- Nice 1–0 Metz Jan 2024
- Metz 0–1 Nice Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Metz v Nice?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Metz v Nice?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mohamed Ali Cho at 78% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.