Metz v Toulouse
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Metz lost to Toulouse 3–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Emersonn for 1+ shots total (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Pape Diop for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacen Russell Rowe | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Emersonn | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Santiago Hidalgo | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Koffi Kouao | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yann Gboho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pape Diop | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nathan Mbala | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Yann Gboho | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 5 | ✓ |
| Santiago Hidalgo | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pape Diop | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Habibou Diallo | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sadibou Sané | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Waren Kamanzi | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Djibril Sidibé | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 46% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 41% | 7 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 26% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Toulouse 4–0 Metz Oct 2025
- Metz 0–1 Toulouse Jan 2024
- Toulouse 3–0 Metz Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Metz v Toulouse?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Metz v Toulouse?
The most confident call it got wrong was Pape Diop at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.