Montpellier v Olympique de Marseille
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Montpellier lost to Olympique de Marseille 0–5, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Mason Greenwood for 1+ shots total (85%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Mason Greenwood for 1+ fouls drawn (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Greenwood | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Rowe | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arnaud Nordin | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 5 | ✓ |
| Elye Wahi | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 6 | ✓ |
| Adrien Rabiot | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 5 | ✓ |
| Teji Savanier | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Ferri | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Rowe | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 5 | ✓ |
| Tanguy Coulibaly | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amine Harit | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 5 | ✓ |
| Akor Adams | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rabby Nzingoula | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mason Greenwood | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Ferri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 57% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 55% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Olympique de Marseille 5–1 Montpellier Apr 2025
- Olympique de Marseille 4–1 Montpellier Feb 2024
- Montpellier 1–1 Olympique de Marseille Dec 2023
- Olympique de Marseille 1–1 Montpellier Mar 2023
- Montpellier 1–2 Olympique de Marseille Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Montpellier v Olympique de Marseille?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Montpellier v Olympique de Marseille?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mason Greenwood at 74% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.