Montpellier v RC Lens
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Montpellier lost to RC Lens 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being M'bala Nzola for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Khalil Fayad for 1+ tackles (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goduine Koyalipou | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| M'bala Nzola | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Adrien Thomasson | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Khalil Fayad | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Neil El Aynaoui | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wahbi Khazri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Khalil Fayad | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Teji Savanier | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Khalil Fayad | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Andy Diouf | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| M'bala Nzola | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Enzo Tchato Mbiayi | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rabby Nzingoula | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Przemysław Frankowski | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 62% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 59% | 7 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- RC Lens 2–0 Montpellier Dec 2024
- RC Lens 2–2 Montpellier May 2024
- Montpellier 0–0 RC Lens Dec 2023
- Montpellier 1–1 RC Lens Feb 2023
- RC Lens 1–0 Montpellier Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Montpellier v RC Lens?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Montpellier v RC Lens?
The most confident call it got wrong was Khalil Fayad at 93% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.