Montpellier v Stade Brestois
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Montpellier beat Stade Brestois 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Ibrahim Salah for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Pierre Lees Melou for 1+ tackles (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahim Salah | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pierre Lees Melou | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mama Baldé | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kamory Doumbia | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wahbi Khazri | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Romain Faivre | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arnaud Nordin | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pierre Lees Melou | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rabby Nzingoula | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luc Zogbé | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonas Martin | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Birama Touré | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Amavi | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Romain Del Castillo | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 59% | 6 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 55% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Stade Brestois 1–0 Montpellier May 2025
- Stade Brestois 2–0 Montpellier Jan 2024
- Montpellier 1–3 Stade Brestois Nov 2023
- Montpellier 3–0 Stade Brestois Feb 2023
- Stade Brestois 0–7 Montpellier Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Montpellier v Stade Brestois?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Montpellier v Stade Brestois?
The most confident call it got wrong was Pierre Lees Melou at 95% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.