Montpellier v Toulouse
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Montpellier lost to Toulouse 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Arnaud Nordin for 1+ fouls drawn (87%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Yann Gboho for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud Nordin | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 5 | ✓ |
| Yann Gboho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Teji Savanier | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wahbi Khazri | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joshua King | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jordan Ferri | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mousa Tamari | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Frank Magri | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Akor Adams | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Aron Dønnum | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Othmane Maamma | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 50% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Toulouse 1–2 Montpellier Jan 2025
- Toulouse 1–2 Montpellier May 2024
- Montpellier 3–0 Toulouse Oct 2023
- Montpellier 1–2 Toulouse Apr 2023
- Toulouse 4–2 Montpellier Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Montpellier v Toulouse?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Montpellier v Toulouse?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yann Gboho at 84% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.