Nantes v Nice
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Nantes lost to Nice 1–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Elye Wahi for 1+ shots total (82%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Tiago Gouveia for 1+ shots total (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elye Wahi | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sofiane Diop | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mostafa Mohamed | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ibrahima Sissoko | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matthis Abline | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morgan Sanson | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Salis Abdul Samed | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tiago Gouveia | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Ali Cho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mostafa Mohamed | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 6 | ✓ |
| Johann Lepenant | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rémy Cabella | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sofiane Diop | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mostafa Mohamed | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 56% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 52% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Nice 1–0 Nantes Sep 2025
- Nice 1–2 Nantes Apr 2025
- Nantes 1–1 Nice Oct 2024
- Nice 1–2 Nantes Mar 2024
- Nantes 1–0 Nice Dec 2023
- Nantes 2–2 Nice Mar 2023
- Nice 1–1 Nantes Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Nantes v Nice?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Nantes v Nice?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tiago Gouveia at 76% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.