Nantes v Paris Saint-Germain
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Nantes lost to Paris Saint-Germain 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Ousmane Dembélé for 1+ shots total (88%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ibrahim Mbaye for 1+ shots total (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Ramos | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 5 | ✓ |
| Mostafa Mohamed | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Désiré Doué | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Johann Lepenant | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mostafa Mohamed | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Mbaye | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bradley Barcola | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 5 | ✓ |
| Mostafa Mohamed | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Désiré Doué | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kang-in Lee | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bahereba Guirassy | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matthis Abline | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kang-in Lee | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 64% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 21% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Paris Saint-Germain 3–0 Nantes Apr 2026
- Nantes 1–1 Paris Saint-Germain Apr 2025
- Paris Saint-Germain 1–1 Nantes Nov 2024
- Nantes 0–2 Paris Saint-Germain Feb 2024
- Paris Saint-Germain 2–1 Nantes Dec 2023
- Paris Saint-Germain 4–2 Nantes Mar 2023
- Nantes 0–3 Paris Saint-Germain Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Nantes v Paris Saint-Germain?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Nantes v Paris Saint-Germain?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ibrahim Mbaye at 78% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.