Nantes v Stade Rennais
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Nantes drew with Stade Rennais 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Mostafa Mohamed for 1+ fouls drawn (87%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Mousa Tamari for 1+ shots total (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostafa Mohamed | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alidu Seidu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Blas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Breel Embolo | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Breel Embolo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Johann Lepenant | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mousa Tamari | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Johann Lepenant | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Junior Mwanga | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Breel Embolo | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Esteban Lepaul | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matthis Abline | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Valentin Rongier | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mousa Tamari | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 47% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 44% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Stade Rennais 2–1 Nantes Apr 2026
- Stade Rennais 2–1 Nantes Apr 2025
- Nantes 1–0 Stade Rennais Dec 2024
- Nantes 0–3 Stade Rennais Apr 2024
- Stade Rennais 3–1 Nantes Oct 2023
- Nantes 0–1 Stade Rennais Feb 2023
- Stade Rennais 3–0 Nantes Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Nantes v Stade Rennais?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Nantes v Stade Rennais?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mousa Tamari at 77% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.