Nice v Lille
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Nice beat Lille 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Benjamin André for 1+ tackles (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Başar Önal for 1+ tackles (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin André | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Niels Nkounkou | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ayase Ueda | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Osame Sahraoui | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Başar Önal | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maurits Kjaergaard | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tiago Santos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Benjamin André | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tiago Santos | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Elye Wahi | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Osame Sahraoui | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ethan Mbappé | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Abdelmonem | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 47% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 31% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Lille 0–0 Nice Apr 2026
- Nice 2–0 Lille Oct 2025
- Lille 2–1 Nice Jan 2025
- Nice 2–2 Lille Nov 2024
- Lille 2–2 Nice May 2024
- Nice 1–1 Lille Aug 2023
- Nice 1–0 Lille Jan 2023
- Lille 1–2 Nice Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Nice v Lille?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Nice v Lille?
The most confident call it got wrong was Başar Önal at 88% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.