Nice v Toulouse
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Nice lost to Toulouse 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Djibril Sidibé for 1+ tackles (93%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Terem Moffi for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terem Moffi | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Djibril Sidibé | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Antoine Mendy | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Hicham Boudaoui | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aron Dønnum | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tom Louchet | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Waren Kamanzi | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hicham Boudaoui | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Frank Magri | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yann Gboho | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Noah Edjouma | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Badredine Bouanani | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Melvin Bard | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mark McKenzie | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Toulouse 5–1 Nice Jan 2026
- Toulouse 1–1 Nice Feb 2025
- Nice 1–1 Toulouse Aug 2024
- Toulouse 2–1 Nice Mar 2024
- Nice 1–0 Toulouse Nov 2023
- Nice 0–0 Toulouse May 2023
- Toulouse 1–1 Nice Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Nice v Toulouse?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Nice v Toulouse?
The most confident call it got wrong was Terem Moffi at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.