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Ligue 1 · 23/24

Olympique de Marseille v Clermont Foot

How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Olympique de Marseille2 – 1 Clermont Foot 17 Dec 2023
11/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Olympique de Marseille beat Clermont Foot 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Grejohn Kyei for 1+ fouls committed (86%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Elbasan Rashani for 1+ fouls committed (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Gael Angoula refereed this match 3.27cards/game 0.84×vs league 33games
Gael Angoula's card record →
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Grejohn Kyei fouls committed 1+ 86% 1
Renan Lodi fouls committed 1+ 83% 2
Elbasan Rashani fouls committed 1+ 82% 0
Alidu Seidu fouls drawn 1+ 81% 2
Amine Harit fouls drawn 1+ 81% 1
Yohann Magnin fouls committed 1+ 81% 3
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang shots total 1+ 80% 3
Geoffrey Kondogbia fouls committed 1+ 79% 2
Muhammed-Cham Saračević fouls drawn 1+ 78% 2
Leonardo Balerdi fouls committed 1+ 77% 1
Samuel Gigot fouls committed 1+ 77% 0
Grejohn Kyei shots total 1+ 77% 1
Jordan Veretout fouls committed 1+ 77% 0
Ismaïla Sarr fouls drawn 1+ 77% 4

How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
Match goals O2.5 55% 3 goals
BTTS Yes 48% Yes
Match cards O4.5 40% 2 cards

How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards

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Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Olympique de Marseille v Clermont Foot?

11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Olympique de Marseille v Clermont Foot?

The most confident call it got wrong was Elbasan Rashani at 82% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.