Olympique de Marseille v Clermont Foot
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Olympique de Marseille beat Clermont Foot 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Grejohn Kyei for 1+ fouls committed (86%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Elbasan Rashani for 1+ fouls committed (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grejohn Kyei | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Renan Lodi | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elbasan Rashani | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alidu Seidu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amine Harit | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yohann Magnin | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Muhammed-Cham Saračević | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Leonardo Balerdi | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samuel Gigot | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Grejohn Kyei | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Veretout | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ismaïla Sarr | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 55% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 40% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Clermont Foot 1–5 Olympique de Marseille Mar 2024
- Clermont Foot 0–2 Olympique de Marseille Feb 2023
- Olympique de Marseille 1–0 Clermont Foot Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Olympique de Marseille v Clermont Foot?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Olympique de Marseille v Clermont Foot?
The most confident call it got wrong was Elbasan Rashani at 82% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.