Olympique de Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Olympique de Marseille lost to Paris Saint-Germain 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Khvicha Kvaratskhelia for 1+ shots total (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Désiré Doué for 1+ fouls drawn (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 7 | ✓ |
| Désiré Doué | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Emerson | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Timothy Weah | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Désiré Doué | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Désiré Doué | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Amine Gouiri | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Keyliane Abdallah | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ferran Torres | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Angel Gomes | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Himad Abdelli | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maghnes Akliouche | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| João Neves | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 64% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 64% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Paris Saint-Germain 5–0 Olympique de Marseille Feb 2026
- Olympique de Marseille 1–0 Paris Saint-Germain Sep 2025
- Paris Saint-Germain 3–1 Olympique de Marseille Mar 2025
- Olympique de Marseille 0–3 Paris Saint-Germain Oct 2024
- Olympique de Marseille 0–2 Paris Saint-Germain Mar 2024
- Paris Saint-Germain 4–0 Olympique de Marseille Sep 2023
- Olympique de Marseille 0–3 Paris Saint-Germain Feb 2023
- Paris Saint-Germain 1–0 Olympique de Marseille Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Olympique de Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Olympique de Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain?
The most confident call it got wrong was Désiré Doué at 88% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.