Olympique de Marseille v Stade de Reims
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Olympique de Marseille drew with Stade de Reims 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Elye Wahi for 1+ shots total (82%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Jonathan Rowe for 1+ fouls drawn (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Rowe | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elye Wahi | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mason Greenwood | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 5 | ✓ |
| Amine Harit | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Valentin Atangana Edoa | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Oumar Diakité | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Martin Adeline | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marshall Munetsi | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mason Greenwood | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luís Henrique | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yaya Fofana | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Keito Nakamura | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 4 | ✓ |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 56% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 53% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 47% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Stade de Reims 3–1 Olympique de Marseille Mar 2025
- Stade de Reims 1–0 Olympique de Marseille May 2024
- Olympique de Marseille 2–1 Stade de Reims Aug 2023
- Stade de Reims 1–2 Olympique de Marseille Mar 2023
- Olympique de Marseille 4–1 Stade de Reims Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Olympique de Marseille v Stade de Reims?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Olympique de Marseille v Stade de Reims?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jonathan Rowe at 83% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.