RC Lens v Nantes
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before RC Lens beat Nantes 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Mohamed Kaba for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Odsonne Édouard for 1+ shots total (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Kaba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ibrahima Sissoko | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rayan Fofana | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abdallah Sima | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rayan Fofana | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Odsonne Édouard | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Wesley Saïd | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Florian Sotoca | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Johann Lepenant | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wesley Saïd | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matthis Abline | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 6 | ✓ |
| Andrija Bulatovic | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Abdallah Sima | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Abdallah Sima | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 58% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | No | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Nantes 1–2 RC Lens Dec 2025
- Nantes 3–1 RC Lens Feb 2025
- RC Lens 3–2 Nantes Nov 2024
- Nantes 0–1 RC Lens Feb 2024
- RC Lens 4–0 Nantes Oct 2023
- RC Lens 3–1 Nantes Feb 2023
- Nantes 0–0 RC Lens Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on RC Lens v Nantes?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on RC Lens v Nantes?
The most confident call it got wrong was Odsonne Édouard at 83% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.