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Ligue 1 · 25/26

Red Star FC v Rodez AF

How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Red Star FC2 – 3 Rodez AF 12 May 2026
9/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Red Star FC lost to Rodez AF 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Tairyk Arconte for 1+ shots total (74%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Dembo Sylla for 1+ shots total (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Guillaume Paradis refereed this match 4.06cards/game 1.04×vs league 16games
Guillaume Paradis's card record →
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Dembo Sylla shots total 1+ 74% 0
Tairyk Arconte shots total 1+ 74% 1
Giovanni Haag shots total 1+ 73% 1
Tairyk Arconte fouls drawn 1+ 70% 0
Wilitty Younoussa fouls committed 1+ 70% 2
Balthazar Pierret fouls committed 1+ 69% 3
Giovanni Haag fouls committed 1+ 67% 0
Tairyk Arconte fouls committed 1+ 66% 5
Wilitty Younoussa fouls drawn 1+ 65% 1
Raphaël Lipinski fouls committed 1+ 63% 2
Wilitty Younoussa shots total 1+ 62% 2
Dembo Sylla fouls committed 1+ 56% 0
Giovanni Haag fouls drawn 1+ 55% 0
Raphaël Lipinski fouls drawn 1+ 54% 1

How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed

Dig deeper

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Red Star FC v Rodez AF?

9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Red Star FC v Rodez AF?

The most confident call it got wrong was Dembo Sylla at 74% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.