Stade Brestois v Toulouse
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stade Brestois drew with Toulouse 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Mama Baldé for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Julian Vignolo for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mama Baldé | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bradley Locko | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Julian Vignolo | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kamory Doumbia | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ludovic Ajorque | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pathé Mboup | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 7 | ✓ |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Mamady Diambou | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 6 | ✓ |
| Yann Gboho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 6 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Ajorque | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pathé Mboup | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Sion Oppong | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yann Gboho | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kamory Doumbia | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 41% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Stade Brestois 0–2 Toulouse Jan 2026
- Toulouse 2–0 Stade Brestois Aug 2025
- Toulouse 2–4 Stade Brestois Mar 2025
- Stade Brestois 2–0 Toulouse Sep 2024
- Toulouse 0–3 Stade Brestois May 2024
- Stade Brestois 1–1 Toulouse Oct 2023
- Stade Brestois 3–1 Toulouse Apr 2023
- Toulouse 1–1 Stade Brestois Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stade Brestois v Toulouse?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stade Brestois v Toulouse?
The most confident call it got wrong was Julian Vignolo at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.