Stade Rennais v Metz
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stade Rennais drew with Metz 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Arnaud Nordin for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 1). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud Nordin | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Esteban Lepaul | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Blas | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Arnaud Nordin | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mousa Tamari | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Valentin Rongier | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Blas | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alpha Touré | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Habibou Diallo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Blas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Djaoui Cissé | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Habibou Diallo | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Djaoui Cissé | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sebastian Szymański | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 57% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Metz 0–1 Stade Rennais Nov 2025
- Metz 2–3 Stade Rennais May 2024
- Stade Rennais 5–1 Metz Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stade Rennais v Metz?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stade Rennais v Metz?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.