Stade Rennais v Olympique de Marseille
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stade Rennais beat Olympique de Marseille 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Adrien Thomasson for 1+ tackles (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Issa Soumaré for 1+ fouls drawn (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Thomasson | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Esteban Lepaul | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Valentin Rongier | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amine Gouiri | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Przemysław Frankowski | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mahamadou Nagida | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Emerson | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Issa Soumaré | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Amine Harit | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Blas | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Keyliane Abdallah | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mousa Tamari | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Igor Paixão | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mahdi Camara | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 68% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 68% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Olympique de Marseille 3–1 Stade Rennais May 2026
- Stade Rennais 1–0 Olympique de Marseille Aug 2025
- Olympique de Marseille 4–2 Stade Rennais May 2025
- Stade Rennais 1–2 Olympique de Marseille Jan 2025
- Stade Rennais 2–0 Olympique de Marseille Mar 2024
- Olympique de Marseille 2–0 Stade Rennais Dec 2023
- Stade Rennais 0–1 Olympique de Marseille Mar 2023
- Olympique de Marseille 1–1 Stade Rennais Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stade Rennais v Olympique de Marseille?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stade Rennais v Olympique de Marseille?
The most confident call it got wrong was Issa Soumaré at 88% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.