Toulouse v Nantes
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Toulouse drew with Nantes 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Johann Lepenant for 1+ fouls drawn (80%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Johann Lepenant for 1+ fouls committed (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johann Lepenant | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Emersonn | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yann Gboho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Matthis Abline | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matthis Abline | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amady Camara | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Frank Magri | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Johann Lepenant | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Junior Mwanga | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mayckel Lahdo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mayckel Lahdo | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mayckel Lahdo | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dehmaine Tabibou | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 45% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 39% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Nantes 0–0 Toulouse Apr 2025
- Toulouse 0–0 Nantes Aug 2024
- Toulouse 1–2 Nantes Feb 2024
- Nantes 1–2 Toulouse Aug 2023
- Toulouse 0–0 Nantes May 2023
- Nantes 3–1 Toulouse Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Toulouse v Nantes?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Toulouse v Nantes?
The most confident call it got wrong was Johann Lepenant at 75% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.