Bournemouth v West Ham
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bournemouth drew with West Ham 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Jarrod Bowen for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Luís Guilherme for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luís Guilherme | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jarrod Bowen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Evanilson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 6 | ✓ |
| Mateus Fernandes | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tyler Adams | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Christie | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jean-Clair Todibo | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ryan Christie | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marcus Tavernier | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tomáš Souček | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| David Brooks | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Amine Adli | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Callum Wilson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- West Ham 0–0 Bournemouth Feb 2026
- West Ham 2–2 Bournemouth Apr 2025
- Bournemouth 1–1 West Ham Dec 2024
- West Ham 1–0 Bournemouth Aug 2024
- West Ham 1–1 Bournemouth Feb 2024
- Bournemouth 1–1 West Ham Aug 2023
- Bournemouth 0–4 West Ham Apr 2023
- West Ham 2–0 Bournemouth Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bournemouth v West Ham?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bournemouth v West Ham?
The most confident call it got wrong was Luís Guilherme at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.