Burnley v Man Utd
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Burnley drew with Man Utd 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Bruno Fernandes for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Mason Mount for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bruno Fernandes | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Šeško | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 8 | ✓ |
| Hannibal Mejbri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Manuel Ugarte | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mason Mount | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Casemiro | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Florentino Luís | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrick Dorgu | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Josh Laurent | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Patrick Dorgu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Casemiro | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marcus Edwards | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Armando Broja | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 22% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Man Utd 3–2 Burnley Aug 2025
- Man Utd 1–1 Burnley Apr 2024
- Burnley 0–1 Man Utd Sep 2023
- Man Utd 2–0 Burnley Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Burnley v Man Utd?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Burnley v Man Utd?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mason Mount at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.