Crystal Palace v Luton
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Crystal Palace drew with Luton 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Eberechi Eze for 1+ shots total (94%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Teden Mengi for 1+ tackles (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eberechi Eze | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 6 | ✓ |
| Jordan Ayew | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tahith Chong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Issa Kaboré | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tyrick Mitchell | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Adam Wharton | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Teden Mengi | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ross Barkley | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Chiedozie Ogbene | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ross Barkley | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tahith Chong | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Ayew | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Luton 2–1 Crystal Palace Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Crystal Palace v Luton?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Crystal Palace v Luton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Teden Mengi at 91% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.