Everton v Man Utd
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Everton drew with Man Utd 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Benjamin Šeško for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Marcus Rashford for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Šeško | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marcus Rashford | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryan Mbeumo | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bruno Fernandes | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Matheus Cunha | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyrique George | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jack Grealish | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| James Garner | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Dorgu | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Youri Tielemans | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrick Dorgu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrick Dorgu | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thierno Barry | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Youri Tielemans | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 56% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Everton 0–1 Man Utd Feb 2026
- Man Utd 0–1 Everton Nov 2025
- Everton 2–2 Man Utd Feb 2025
- Man Utd 4–0 Everton Dec 2024
- Man Utd 2–0 Everton Mar 2024
- Everton 0–3 Man Utd Nov 2023
- Man Utd 2–0 Everton Apr 2023
- Everton 1–2 Man Utd Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Everton v Man Utd?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Everton v Man Utd?
The most confident call it got wrong was Marcus Rashford at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.