Fulham v Chelsea
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Fulham lost to Chelsea 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being João Pedro for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Enzo Fernández for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Palmer | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| João Pedro | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Antonee Robinson | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Enzo Fernández | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gonzalo García | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Morgan Rogers | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| César Palacios | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Calvin Bassey | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Timothy Castagne | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joshua King | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oscar Bobb | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sander Berge | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Roméo Lavia | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jorrel Hato | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 55% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 50% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Fulham 2–1 Chelsea Jan 2026
- Chelsea 2–0 Fulham Aug 2025
- Fulham 1–2 Chelsea Apr 2025
- Chelsea 1–2 Fulham Dec 2024
- Chelsea 1–0 Fulham Jan 2024
- Fulham 0–2 Chelsea Oct 2023
- Chelsea 0–0 Fulham Feb 2023
- Fulham 2–1 Chelsea Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Fulham v Chelsea?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Fulham v Chelsea?
The most confident call it got wrong was Enzo Fernández at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.