Premier League · 23/24

Luton v Brentford

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Luton1 – 5 Brentford 20 Apr 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 12 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Bryan Mbeumo	shots total	1+	100%	3	✓
Keane Lewis-Potter	shots total	1+	96%	4	✓
Yoane Wissa	shots total	1+	95%	2	✓
Carlton Morris	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Bryan Mbeumo	fouls drawn	1+	85%	2	✓
Tahith Chong	fouls drawn	1+	84%	3	✓
Yoane Wissa	fouls drawn	1+	84%	1	✓
Tahith Chong	shots total	1+	78%	2	✓
Mikkel Damsgaard	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓
Fred Onyedinma	shots total	1+	77%	0	✗
Luke Berry	shots total	1+	74%	1	✓
Yoane Wissa	fouls committed	1+	74%	1	✓
Jordan Clark	shots total	1+	74%	1	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Btts	Yes	60%	Yes	✓
Match goals	O2.5	60%	6 goals	✓
Match cards	O4.5	25%	3 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Luton & Brentford player stats→ Luton players & stats→ Brentford players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Brentford 3–1 Luton Dec 2023

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works